ISO peak load forecasting application

kbaranko, updated 🕥 2023-02-16 02:33:06

Peaky-Finders

Peaky Finders is a Plotly Dash application with helpful peak load visualizations and a day ahead forecasting model for five different ISOs. It does not demonstrate cutting-edge peak load forecasting methods -- there are a handful of high tech companies and millions of dollars spent trying to solve this problem -- but rather illustrate core concepts and explore how well a model can do with just historical load and temperature data.

The application has been deployed on Heroku: https://peaky-finders.herokuapp.com/

Stack

  • Python
  • Pandas
  • Matplotlib
  • Scikit-Learn
  • Dash
  • Plotly

Data

Historical load data was collected using the Pyiso python library, which provides clean API interfaces to make scraping ISO websites easy. The Darksky API was used for weather data, which provides historical temperature readings for a given latitude and longitude. For this model, I picked one central coordinate in each ISO territory to make API requests.

Features

  • Day of week (seven days)
  • Holiday (yes or no)
  • Hour of Day (24 hours)
  • Temperature Reading (hourly)
  • Previous Day’s Load (t-24)

Results

How well does each model perform? Depends on the ISO. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the month of February 2021 in Megawatts (MW):

  • CAISO: 455.91
  • MISO: 2,382.66
  • PJM: 2,886.66
  • NYISO: 347.62
  • ISONE: 522.43

Issues

Bump werkzeug from 1.0.1 to 2.2.3

opened on 2023-02-16 02:33:05 by dependabot[bot]

Bumps werkzeug from 1.0.1 to 2.2.3.

Release notes

Sourced from werkzeug's releases.

2.2.3

This is a fix release for the 2.2.x release branch.

This release contains security fixes for:

2.2.2

This is a fix release for the 2.2.0 feature release.

2.2.1

This is a fix release for the 2.2.0 feature release.

2.2.0

This is a feature release, which includes new features and removes previously deprecated features. The 2.2.x branch is now the supported bugfix branch, the 2.1.x branch will become a tag marking the end of support for that branch. We encourage everyone to upgrade, and to use a tool such as pip-tools to pin all dependencies and control upgrades.

2.1.2

This is a fix release for the 2.1.0 feature release.

2.1.1

This is a fix release for the 2.1.0 feature release.

2.1.0

This is a feature release, which includes new features and removes previously deprecated features. The 2.1.x branch is now the supported bugfix branch, the 2.0.x branch will become a tag marking the end of support for that branch. We encourage everyone to upgrade, and to use a tool such as pip-tools to pin all dependencies and control upgrades.

2.0.3

... (truncated)

Changelog

Sourced from werkzeug's changelog.

Version 2.2.3

Released 2023-02-14

  • Ensure that URL rules using path converters will redirect with strict slashes when the trailing slash is missing. :issue:2533
  • Type signature for get_json specifies that return type is not optional when silent=False. :issue:2508
  • parse_content_range_header returns None for a value like bytes */-1 where the length is invalid, instead of raising an AssertionError. :issue:2531
  • Address remaining ResourceWarning related to the socket used by run_simple. Remove prepare_socket, which now happens when creating the server. :issue:2421
  • Update pre-existing headers for multipart/form-data requests with the test client. :issue:2549
  • Fix handling of header extended parameters such that they are no longer quoted. :issue:2529
  • LimitedStream.read works correctly when wrapping a stream that may not return the requested size in one read call. :issue:2558
  • A cookie header that starts with = is treated as an empty key and discarded, rather than stripping the leading ==.
  • Specify a maximum number of multipart parts, default 1000, after which a RequestEntityTooLarge exception is raised on parsing. This mitigates a DoS attack where a larger number of form/file parts would result in disproportionate resource use.

Version 2.2.2

Released 2022-08-08

  • Fix router to restore the 2.1 strict_slashes == False behaviour whereby leaf-requests match branch rules and vice versa. :pr:2489
  • Fix router to identify invalid rules rather than hang parsing them, and to correctly parse / within converter arguments. :pr:2489
  • Update subpackage imports in :mod:werkzeug.routing to use the import as syntax for explicitly re-exporting public attributes. :pr:2493
  • Parsing of some invalid header characters is more robust. :pr:2494
  • When starting the development server, a warning not to use it in a production deployment is always shown. :issue:2480
  • LocalProxy.__wrapped__ is always set to the wrapped object when the proxy is unbound, fixing an issue in doctest that would cause it to fail. :issue:2485
  • Address one ResourceWarning related to the socket used by run_simple. :issue:2421

... (truncated)

Commits
  • 22a254f release version 2.2.3
  • 517cac5 Merge pull request from GHSA-xg9f-g7g7-2323
  • babc8d9 rewrite docs about request data limits
  • 09449ee clean up docs
  • fe899d0 limit the maximum number of multipart form parts
  • cf275f4 Merge pull request from GHSA-px8h-6qxv-m22q
  • 8c2b4b8 don't strip leading = when parsing cookie
  • 7c7ce5c [pre-commit.ci] pre-commit autoupdate (#2585)
  • 19ae03e [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks
  • a83d3b8 [pre-commit.ci] pre-commit autoupdate
  • Additional commits viewable in compare view


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Bump certifi from 2020.12.5 to 2022.12.7

opened on 2022-12-08 08:04:43 by dependabot[bot]

Bumps certifi from 2020.12.5 to 2022.12.7.

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Bump pillow from 8.1.0 to 9.3.0

opened on 2022-11-22 07:31:16 by dependabot[bot]

Bumps pillow from 8.1.0 to 9.3.0.

Release notes

Sourced from pillow's releases.

9.3.0

https://pillow.readthedocs.io/en/stable/releasenotes/9.3.0.html

Changes

... (truncated)

Changelog

Sourced from pillow's changelog.

9.3.0 (2022-10-29)

  • Limit SAMPLESPERPIXEL to avoid runtime DOS #6700 [wiredfool]

  • Initialize libtiff buffer when saving #6699 [radarhere]

  • Inline fname2char to fix memory leak #6329 [nulano]

  • Fix memory leaks related to text features #6330 [nulano]

  • Use double quotes for version check on old CPython on Windows #6695 [hugovk]

  • Remove backup implementation of Round for Windows platforms #6693 [cgohlke]

  • Fixed set_variation_by_name offset #6445 [radarhere]

  • Fix malloc in _imagingft.c:font_setvaraxes #6690 [cgohlke]

  • Release Python GIL when converting images using matrix operations #6418 [hmaarrfk]

  • Added ExifTags enums #6630 [radarhere]

  • Do not modify previous frame when calculating delta in PNG #6683 [radarhere]

  • Added support for reading BMP images with RLE4 compression #6674 [npjg, radarhere]

  • Decode JPEG compressed BLP1 data in original mode #6678 [radarhere]

  • Added GPS TIFF tag info #6661 [radarhere]

  • Added conversion between RGB/RGBA/RGBX and LAB #6647 [radarhere]

  • Do not attempt normalization if mode is already normal #6644 [radarhere]

... (truncated)

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Bump joblib from 1.0.0 to 1.2.0

opened on 2022-09-30 19:27:26 by dependabot[bot]

Bumps joblib from 1.0.0 to 1.2.0.

Changelog

Sourced from joblib's changelog.

Release 1.2.0

  • Fix a security issue where eval(pre_dispatch) could potentially run arbitrary code. Now only basic numerics are supported. joblib/joblib#1327

  • Make sure that joblib works even when multiprocessing is not available, for instance with Pyodide joblib/joblib#1256

  • Avoid unnecessary warnings when workers and main process delete the temporary memmap folder contents concurrently. joblib/joblib#1263

  • Fix memory alignment bug for pickles containing numpy arrays. This is especially important when loading the pickle with mmap_mode != None as the resulting numpy.memmap object would not be able to correct the misalignment without performing a memory copy. This bug would cause invalid computation and segmentation faults with native code that would directly access the underlying data buffer of a numpy array, for instance C/C++/Cython code compiled with older GCC versions or some old OpenBLAS written in platform specific assembly. joblib/joblib#1254

  • Vendor cloudpickle 2.2.0 which adds support for PyPy 3.8+.

  • Vendor loky 3.3.0 which fixes several bugs including:

    • robustly forcibly terminating worker processes in case of a crash (joblib/joblib#1269);

    • avoiding leaking worker processes in case of nested loky parallel calls;

    • reliability spawn the correct number of reusable workers.

Release 1.1.0

  • Fix byte order inconsistency issue during deserialization using joblib.load in cross-endian environment: the numpy arrays are now always loaded to use the system byte order, independently of the byte order of the system that serialized the pickle. joblib/joblib#1181

  • Fix joblib.Memory bug with the ignore parameter when the cached function is a decorated function.

... (truncated)

Commits
  • 5991350 Release 1.2.0
  • 3fa2188 MAINT cleanup numpy warnings related to np.matrix in tests (#1340)
  • cea26ff CI test the future loky-3.3.0 branch (#1338)
  • 8aca6f4 MAINT: remove pytest.warns(None) warnings in pytest 7 (#1264)
  • 067ed4f XFAIL test_child_raises_parent_exits_cleanly with multiprocessing (#1339)
  • ac4ebd5 MAINT add back pytest warnings plugin (#1337)
  • a23427d Test child raises parent exits cleanly more reliable on macos (#1335)
  • ac09691 [MAINT] various test updates (#1334)
  • 4a314b1 Vendor loky 3.2.0 (#1333)
  • bdf47e9 Make test_parallel_with_interactively_defined_functions_default_backend timeo...
  • Additional commits viewable in compare view


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Bump nbconvert from 6.0.7 to 6.5.1

opened on 2022-08-23 18:24:59 by dependabot[bot]

Bumps nbconvert from 6.0.7 to 6.5.1.

Release notes

Sourced from nbconvert's releases.

Release 6.5.1

No release notes provided.

6.5.0

What's Changed

New Contributors

Full Changelog: https://github.com/jupyter/nbconvert/compare/6.4.5...6.5

6.4.3

What's Changed

New Contributors

Full Changelog: https://github.com/jupyter/nbconvert/compare/6.4.2...6.4.3

6.4.0

What's Changed

New Contributors

... (truncated)

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Bump mistune from 0.8.4 to 2.0.3

opened on 2022-07-29 23:21:07 by dependabot[bot]

Bumps mistune from 0.8.4 to 2.0.3.

Release notes

Sourced from mistune's releases.

Version 2.0.2

Fix escape_url via lepture/mistune#295

Version 2.0.1

Fix XSS for image link syntax.

Version 2.0.0

First release of Mistune v2.

Version 2.0.0 RC1

In this release, we have a Security Fix for harmful links.

Version 2.0.0 Alpha 1

This is the first release of v2. An alpha version for users to have a preview of the new mistune.

Changelog

Sourced from mistune's changelog.

Changelog

Here is the full history of mistune v2.

Version 2.0.4


Released on Jul 15, 2022
  • Fix url plugin in <a> tag
  • Fix * formatting

Version 2.0.3

Released on Jun 27, 2022

  • Fix table plugin
  • Security fix for CVE-2022-34749

Version 2.0.2


Released on Jan 14, 2022

Fix escape_url

Version 2.0.1

Released on Dec 30, 2021

XSS fix for image link syntax.

Version 2.0.0


Released on Dec 5, 2021

This is the first non-alpha release of mistune v2.

Version 2.0.0rc1

Released on Feb 16, 2021

Version 2.0.0a6


</tr></table> 

... (truncated)

Commits
  • 3f422f1 Version bump 2.0.3
  • a6d4321 Fix asteris emphasis regex CVE-2022-34749
  • 5638e46 Merge pull request #307 from jieter/patch-1
  • 0eba471 Fix typo in guide.rst
  • 61e9337 Fix table plugin
  • 76dec68 Add documentation for renderer heading when TOC enabled
  • 799cd11 Version bump 2.0.2
  • babb0cf Merge pull request #295 from dairiki/bug.escape_url
  • fc2cd53 Make mistune.util.escape_url less aggressive
  • 3e8d352 Version bump 2.0.1
  • Additional commits viewable in compare view


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Kyle Baranko

Passionate about using data science to modernize the electricity grid.

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